Swing State Project
Campaign and Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by: DrPhillips
Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 12:04 PM EDT
I like to think of interesting topics for diaries and this is one that came to me. If Puerto Rico was a state it would have six seats. I looked at the census data, did a spreadsheet and filled in my map based on my calculations. I took a few guesses on splitting municipalities, so the deviations aren't exact at all. It would be nice if this was made available on the Redistricting App if possible (obvious hint to Dave), so everyone could work with this just for hypotheticals.
Now, since Puerto Rico has no presidential vote, it's hard to say how any of these districts would vote or how they'd lean. Since Puerto Rico has it's own parties, I assume elections would be decided on issues relating to those parties and it doesn't seem to heavily lean toward either of the main ones there. Many in the PPD align with Democrats, while the PNP has a mix of those who align with the US parties, with those leaning toward Republicans having the edge.
PR-1:
Mayaguez anchors this district. Looking at previous election results, the PPD seems to do very well in and around Mayaguez, so it would probably lean PPD/Dem.
PR-2:
Ponce is the population center and leans PPD, but it also includes many of lower population density areas, which seem to lean PNP. I would guess it would be a toss-up.
PR-3:
Toa Alta and Toa Baja make up the biggest share of population here, both of which have PNP mayors and seem to vote PNP in most gubernatorial elections, which indicates a PNP lean for this district.
PR-4:
Bayamon is largest municipality and has a pronounced PNP lean, but PPD leaning Cauguas makes a up a good share of the district as well, which adds balance. It might be a toss-up or slight PNP lean.
PR-5:
The capital of San Juan anchors the district smallest in size. San Juan swings between both parties, with a slight edge to PPD. PPD leaning Carolina is also a portion of this district, which should equal a PPD edge overall for this district.
PR-6:
Has a portion of PPD leaning Carolina, but all the rest, save for Humacao, leans PNP. It doesn't appear that there is a huge edge toward either side, so I'd all it a toss-up.
Overall, none of this analysis counts for much, as we have no idea how Puerto Rico would swing on a federal level. The island is socially conservative, but economically liberal in many aspects and that could be what determined a lot of voting patterns
Now, since Puerto Rico has no presidential vote, it's hard to say how any of these districts would vote or how they'd lean. Since Puerto Rico has it's own parties, I assume elections would be decided on issues relating to those parties and it doesn't seem to heavily lean toward either of the main ones there. Many in the PPD align with Democrats, while the PNP has a mix of those who align with the US parties, with those leaning toward Republicans having the edge.
PR-1:
Mayaguez anchors this district. Looking at previous election results, the PPD seems to do very well in and around Mayaguez, so it would probably lean PPD/Dem.
PR-2:
Ponce is the population center and leans PPD, but it also includes many of lower population density areas, which seem to lean PNP. I would guess it would be a toss-up.
PR-3:
Toa Alta and Toa Baja make up the biggest share of population here, both of which have PNP mayors and seem to vote PNP in most gubernatorial elections, which indicates a PNP lean for this district.
PR-4:
Bayamon is largest municipality and has a pronounced PNP lean, but PPD leaning Cauguas makes a up a good share of the district as well, which adds balance. It might be a toss-up or slight PNP lean.
PR-5:
The capital of San Juan anchors the district smallest in size. San Juan swings between both parties, with a slight edge to PPD. PPD leaning Carolina is also a portion of this district, which should equal a PPD edge overall for this district.
PR-6:
Has a portion of PPD leaning Carolina, but all the rest, save for Humacao, leans PNP. It doesn't appear that there is a huge edge toward either side, so I'd all it a toss-up.
Overall, none of this analysis counts for much, as we have no idea how Puerto Rico would swing on a federal level. The island is socially conservative, but economically liberal in many aspects and that could be what determined a lot of voting patterns
in PR-2 you include Arecibo, Manatí and Florida, which are heavily PNP. Arecibo and Manatí together have as much population as Ponce. ;-)
ReplyDeleteAs you know the Cordillera Central that runs E to W through the Island divides not only geographies but subcultures. The north coast between Camuy and Vega Alta has a shared subculture, so does the southern coast around Ponce.
It would probably make more sense to group districts along those lines. I would take the area covered by your PR-2 and PR-3 and instead of dividing them with a N-S line, use an E-W line through the Cordillera.
Take care,
/ rs
Very interesting. We will see this soon. Great job!
ReplyDelete